Supply chain inefficiency costs businesses 15–25% of annual revenue through excess inventory, poor forecasts, unquantified risk, and sub-optimal allocation. Mathnal's free diagnostic suite gives you the data to fix it — without expensive software licenses or consultants.
📦 Inventory Health Check
ABC-XYZ classification identifies which SKUs drive 80% of revenue (A items) versus which have erratic demand (Z items). Combined with safety stock calculation using the statistical formula SS = Z × √(LT × σd² + d² × σLT²), it quantifies exactly how much buffer you need at your target service level. The 10-dimension health score covers stock coverage, turnover ratio, aging analysis, demand variability, carrying cost efficiency, fill rate, reorder point accuracy, dead stock percentage, order cycle performance, and overall supply reliability.
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📈 Forecast Accuracy Audit
Demand forecasting accuracy directly impacts inventory costs, service levels, and production planning. The audit auto-detects trend (linear, exponential, piecewise), seasonality (additive vs multiplicative), and variability classification (smooth, intermittent, lumpy, erratic). It then runs 7+ models — ARIMA, ETS, Holt-Winters, Prophet, Croston, SBA, and naïve benchmarks — selecting the best model by MAPE. Error decomposition separates bias (systematic over/under-forecasting) from noise (random variation), while tracking signal alerts you when forecasts drift persistently.
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⚠️ SC Risk & Resilience Simulator
Bayesian risk analysis updates prior probability estimates with new evidence using likelihood ratios. The SCRRS tool models 45+ disruption scenarios across geopolitical, climate, supplier failure, logistics delay, demand shock, quality failure, cyber, regulatory, and financial risk categories. Monte Carlo simulation runs 10,000+ iterations to build a loss distribution, from which Value-at-Risk (VaR) at 95% confidence quantifies worst-case financial exposure. The resilience score rates your supply chain's ability to absorb and recover from disruption on a 0–100 scale.
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⚙️ SC Optimization & Simulation
Mathematical programming optimizes resource allocation across production, transport, and procurement decisions. The LP solver uses coordinate descent to find the global optimum for proportional cost structures. The NLP solver handles economies of scale using a log-discount factor c(x) = c₀(1 − 0.02·ln(1+x/100)). Five objectives — cost minimization, distance minimization, volume maximization, profit maximization, and revenue maximization — with six global constraints (budget, capacity, service level, distance, weight, iterations) and per-SKU bounds. Outputs include optimal allocation table, constraint utilization chart, sensitivity analysis with shadow prices, and LP formulation matrix.
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